Gender at the Florida Primary

Betsy Fischer Martin | Mar 18, 2020

 

Joe Biden won a decisive victory in the delegate-rich Florida Primary beating Bernie Sanders by 39 points. Florida was one of three states holding its primary on March 17th, in the midst of the Coronavirus health crisis. Nevertheless, Democratic turnout was actually up from 2016 levels as many Floridians voted in advance or took precautionary measures to head out of their homes and to polling places.

Covid-19 also impacted Edison Research/National Election Pool who usually conducts the in-person exit polling used by news organizations, researchers, and this blog to analyze who voted for whom.

Instead, some news organizations are using online and phone polling in the days leading up to the election. The below is based on data provided by the New York Times (from surveys conducted for the Associated Press by NORC at the University in Chicago).  It is the best available estimate of voter demographics.

What do we know about the women of Florida who voted in the Democratic primary?

In terms of turnout, women made up a majority of Democratic primary voters – totaling 59% of the electorate.

2020 FL DEM PRIMARY TURNOUT

Source: 3/17/20 New York Times/Associated Press Pre-Primary Poll

Overall, Joe Biden won female Democratic primary voters with 61%, compared to Sanders with 22%.

WOMEN SUPPORT

Source: 3/17/20 New York Times/Associated Press Pre-Primary Poll

And what about the gender gap – how did women differ from men in who they supported?

Men were more likely than women to support Sanders (a 2 point gap) while women were more likely than men to support Biden (a 2 point gap).

FLORIDA GENDER GAP

Source: 3/17/20 New York Times/Associated Press Pre-Primary Poll

Note: The Florida Republican Party did hold a presidential preference contest with President Trump receiving 94% of the vote and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld receiving 3% of the vote. There is no exit poll data available.

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