Gender at the North Carolina Primary

 

Despite pre-election polls showing a tight three-way race in North Carolina, Joe Biden won by almost 20 points over second-place finisher Bernie Sanders.

What do we know about the women of North Carolina who voted in the Democratic primary on Super Tuesday?

In terms of turnout, women once again made up a majority of Democratic primary voters – totaling 57% of the electorate.

2020 DEM NC PRIMARY TURNOUT

Source: National Election Pool/Edison Research

Overall, Biden had a strong showing among female Democratic primary voters winning 42% of their vote compared to Sanders with 21%, Bloomberg with 14%, and Warren with 13%.

WOMEN SUPPORT

Source: National Election Pool/Edison Research

And what about the gender gap – how did women differ from men in who they supported?

Similar to many other contests, we see Sanders and Warren at each end of the spectrum. Men were more likely than women to support Sanders (a 6 point gap) and women were more likely than men to support Warren (a 5 point gap).

NORTH CAROLINA GENDER GAP

Source: 3/3/20 North Carolina Exit Poll/Edison Research/National Election Pool

Overall, the one remaining viable female candidate, Elizabeth Warren, finished in fourth place with only 10% of the vote. Yet among her base of support, white college educated women who made up 20% of the electorate, she came in second place to Biden.

WHITE COLLEGE GRADUATE WOMEN

Source: National Election Pool/Edison Research

The issue of electability loomed large in North Carolina with 63% of Democratic voters preferring a candidate who can beat Donald Trump versus a candidate who agrees on the same issues.

And when voters were asked who they thought the most electable candidate was, Elizabeth Warren came in a distant fourth.

WHO HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO DEFEAT TRUMP?

Source: National Election Pool/Edison Research

Note: The North Carolina Republican Party did hold a presidential preference contest with President Trump receiving 93% of the vote and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld receiving 2% of the vote. There is no exit poll data available.

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